POSSIBILITIES AND CHALLENGES OF PREDICTIVE PROFILING IN THE STATE BORDER GUARD

Juris Madžuls; Daina Znotiņa

doi:10.17770/bsm.v5i10.8306

Authors

Juris Madžuls Mg.soc.sc, docent, the State Border Guard College of the Republic of Latvia (LV)
Daina Znotiņa Mg.soc.sc, lecturer, Rezekne Academy of Technologies (LV)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17770/bsm.v5i10.8306

Keywords:

border guard, predictive, profiling, risk, threat

Abstract

The paper is aimed to investigate the role of predictive profiling (hereafter PP) in the fight against cross-border crime and terrorism. The main tasks of the article are to describe the content of PP, the added value of its implementation and how it can be used in the State Border Guard Service of the Republic of Latvia (hereafter SBGS) as a complement to risk assessment in operational situations. The authors of the paper explores the content of the PP implemented in the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee (hereafter KMar), as well as in Slovakia, Spain and several Central Asia region countries. For this purpose analysis and evaluation of documents, scientific, pedagogical and psychological literature was performed and suggestions for the improvement of border guard service threat detection system in the field of PP were compiled.
The paper outlines the goal of PP, which is to identify, assess, and take action on a potential criminal or terrorist threat as early as possible (preferably during preparatory actions). Deviant behaviour in combination with Attacker Method of Operation forms a key concept. The AMO provides the indicators for the deviant behaviour. Furthermore, the paper delves into the system of PP and its corresponding process steps. PP is focused on the threat, not the risk, making it a threat analysis.

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